Land management impacts on runoff sources in small Amazon watersheds     

Joaquín Chaves  Christopher Neill  Sonja Germer  Sérgio Gouveia Neto  Alex Krusche  Helmut Elsenbeer 《水文研究》2008,22(12):1766-1775

Forest clearing and conversion to cattle pasture in the lowland Amazon region has been linked to soil compaction and increased soil water storage, which combine to diminish soil infiltration, enhance quick lateral flows and increase the stream flow response to precipitation. Quantifying the importance of quick surficial flow in response to this land use change requires identification of water sources within catchments that contribute to stream flow. Using an end member mixing analysis approach, potential contributing sources of stream flow were evaluated during an entire rainy season in a forest and a pasture watershed drained by ephemeral‐to‐intermittent streams in the south‐western Amazon. Water yield was 17% of precipitation in the pasture and 0·8% of precipitation in the forest. During the early rainy season, throughfall, groundwater, and soil water contributed 79%, 18%, and 3%, respectively, to total forest stream flow. Over the entire rainy season, throughfall, groundwater, and shallow soil water provided 57%, 24%, and 19%, respectively, of stream flow. In the pasture watershed, overland flow dominated stream flow both in the early (67%) and late (57%) rainy season, with a mean contribution of 60% overland flow, 35% groundwater, and 5% soil water. The uncertainty associated with those estimates was studied using a Monte Carlo approach. In addition to large changes in total surface flow, marked differences were found in the proportions of total stream flow in the second half of the rainy season between the forest and pasture watershed. These results suggest that (1) there is great potential for alteration of the hydrological budgets of larger watersheds as the proportion of deforested land in the Amazon increases, and (2) as more rainfall is diverted into fast flowpaths to streams in established pastures, the potential to deliver water with higher solute concentrations generated by erosion or by bypassing sites of solute removal increases. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Evaluation of Inference Adequacy in Cumulative Logistic Regression Models： An Empirical Validation of ISW-Ridge Relationships   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

Hsien-Chueh Peter YANG  Alex Kung-Hsiung CHANG  Tsung-Hao CHEN 《中国海洋工程》2008,22(1)

Internal solitary wave propagation over a submarine ridge results in energy dissipation, in which the hydrodynamic interaction between a wave and ridge affects marine environment. This study analyzes the effects of ridge height and potential energy during wave-ridge interaction with a binary and cumulative logistic regression model. In testing the Global Null Hypothesis, all values are p<0.001, with three statistical methods, such as Likelihood Ratio, Score, and Wald. While comparing with two kinds of models, tests values obtained by cumulative logistic regression models are better than those by binary logistic regression models. Although this study employed cumulative logistic regression model, three probability functions p^1, p^2 and p^3, are utilized for investigating the weighted influence of factors on wave reflection. Deviance and Pearson tests are applied to check the goodness-of-fit of the proposed model. The analytical results demonstrated that both ridge height (X1) and potential energy (X2) significantly impact (p<0.0001) the amplitude-based reflected rate; the P-values for the deviance and Pearson are all >0.05 (0.2839, 0.3438, respectively). That is, the goodness-of-fit between ridge height (X1) and potential energy (X2) can further predict parameters under the scenario of the best parsimonious model.Investigation of 6 predictive powers (R2, Max-rescaled R2, Somers'D, Gamma, Tau-a, and c, respectively) indicate that these predictive estimates of the proposed model have better predictive ability than ridge height alone, and are very similar to the interaction of ridge height and potential energy. It can be concluded that the goodness-of-fit and prediction ability of the cumulative logistic regression model are better than that of the binary logistic regression model.  相似文献   

Genetic structure of the tall sea pen Funiculina quadrangularis in NW Scottish sea lochs          下载免费PDF全文

Erin P. Wright  Kirsty Kemp  Alex D. Rogers  Chris Yesson 《Marine Ecology》2015,36(3):659-667

The tall sea pen Funiculina quadrangularis has a patchy distribution around the UK, being found in sheltered waters below 20 m depth on the northwest coast of Scotland and Ireland. The limited distribution and sensitivity to bottom fishing activities make F. quadrangularis vulnerable to reduction in population numbers that may lead to genetic isolation and reduced diversity. Because of this vulnerability and low resilience to physical disturbance, the tall sea pen is recognised as a Species of Principle Importance under the Natural Environment and Rural Communities Act, 2006, UK. ( http://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/2006/16/contents ) and is also on the Biodiversity Action Plan list of Priority Species for the UK. In the Mediterranean it is recognised as a sensitive and essential fish habitat because it forms habitat for several commercially important crustaceans. The aim of this study was to understand the current state of the genetic structure and gene flow of F. quadrangularis in areas of NW Scotland. We developed 10 microsatellite markers and used them to genotype 176 samples from four populations. Overall, our results suggest that there is high genetic diversity and high gene flow between colonies of F. quadrangularis in and among locations in Loch Linnhe and Loch Duich. As a result of the high rates of gene flow, genetic differentiation between sites was low. This may provide resilience to human impacts if distant populations have a high connectivity. However, care must be taken, as small but significant isolation by distance was found between the most geographically distant sites and only a small part of the species range was examined in this study. The genetic tools developed here will provide a foundation for wider studies of this vulnerable species.  相似文献   

Shock and thermal history of Northwest Africa 4859, an annealed impact‐melt breccia of LL chondrite parentage containing unusual igneous features and pentlandite     

Niina JAMSJA  Alex RUZICKA 《Meteoritics & planetary science》2010,45(5):828-849

Abstract– Northwest Africa 4859 (NWA 4859) is a meteorite of LL chondrite parentage that shows unusual igneous features and contains widely distributed pentlandite. The most obvious unusual feature is a high proportion of large (≤3 cm diameter) igneous‐textured enclaves (LITEs), interpreted as shock melts that were intruded into an LL chondrite host. One such LITE appears to have been produced by whole rock melting of LL chondrite, initial rapid partial crystallization, and subsequent slow cooling of the residual melt in the host to produce a differentiated object. Other unusual features include mm‐sized “overgrowth objects,” fine‐grained plagioclase‐rich bands, and coarse troilite (≤7 mm across) grains. All these features are interpreted as having crystallized from melts produced by a single transient shock event, followed by slow cooling. A subsequent shock event of moderate (S3) intensity produced veining and transformed some of the pyroxene into the clinoenstatite polytype. Pentlandite (together with associated troilite) in NWA 4859 probably formed by the breakdown of a monosulfide precursor phase at low temperature (≤230 °C) following the second shock event. NWA 4859 is interpreted to be an unusual impact‐melt breccia that contains shock melt which crystallized in different forms at depth within the parent body.  相似文献   

Pencil-beam surveys for trans-neptunian objects: Limits on distant populations     

Alex H. Parker  J.J. Kavelaars 《Icarus》2010,209(2):766-770

Two populations of minor bodies in the outer Solar System remain particularly elusive: Scattered Disk Objects and Sedna-like objects. These populations are important dynamical tracers, and understanding the details of their spatial- and size-distributions will enhance our understanding of the formation and on-going evolution of the Solar System. By using newly-derived limits on the maximum heliocentric distances that recent pencil-beam surveys for trans-neptunian objects were sensitive to, we determine new upper limits on the total numbers of distant SDOs and Sedna-like objects. While generally consistent with populations estimated from wide-area surveys, we show that for magnitude-distribution slopes of α ? 0.7-1.0, these pencil-beam surveys provide stronger upper limits than current estimates in literature.  相似文献   

Late Quaternary glaciation and equilibrium-line altitudes of the Mayan Ice Cap, Guatemala, Central America     

Alex J. Roy  Matthew S. Lachniet 《Quaternary Research》2010,74(1):1-7

The Sierra los Cuchumatanes (3837 m), Guatemala, supported a plateau ice cap and valley glaciers around Montaña San Juan (3784 m) that totaled ∼ 43 km² in area during the last local glacial maximum. Former ice limits are defined by sharp-crested lateral and terminal moraines that extend to elevations of ∼ 3450 m along the ice cap margin, and to ca. 3000-3300 m for the valley glaciers. Equilibrium-line altitudes (ELAs) estimated using the area-altitude balance ratio method for the maximum late Quaternary glaciation reached as low as 3470 m for the valley glaciers and 3670 m for the Mayan Ice Cap. Relative to the modern altitude of the 0°C isotherm of ∼ 4840 m, we determined ELA depressions of 1110-1436 m. If interpreted in terms of a depression of the freezing level during maximal glaciation along the modern lapse rate of − 5.3°C km^− 1, this ΔELA indicates tropical highland cooling of ∼ 5.9 to 7.6 ± 1.2°C. Our data support greater glacial highland cooling than at sea level, implying a high tropical sensitivity to global climate changes. The large magnitude of ELA depression in Guatemala may have been partially forced by enhanced wetness associated with southward excursions of the boreal winter polar air mass.  相似文献   

Vulnerabilities and migration in Small Island Developing States in the context of climate change     

Alex Julca  Oliver Paddison 《Natural Hazards》2010,55(3):717-728

The unique characteristics of Small Island Developing States and structural vulnerabilities they face in terms of development have earned them particular consideration in the development agenda. This article sheds light on some of the vulnerabilities that these countries face, making particular reference to their environmental and economic vulnerabilities. It then highlights the ambiguous role that international migration plays in the recreation of those vulnerabilities.  相似文献   

Comparison of statistically downscaled precipitation in terms of future climate indices and daily variability for southern Ontario and Quebec,Canada     

Carlos F. Gaitan  William W. Hsieh  Alex J. Cannon 《Climate Dynamics》2014,43(12):3201-3217

Given the coarse resolution of global climate models, downscaling techniques are often needed to generate finer scale projections of variables affected by local-scale processes such as precipitation. However, classical statistical downscaling experiments for future climate rely on the time-invariance assumption as one cannot know the true change in the variable of interest, nor validate the models with data not yet observed. Our experimental setup involves using the Canadian regional climate model (CRCM) outputs as pseudo-observations to estimate model performance in the context of future climate projections by replacing historical and future observations with model simulations from the CRCM, nested within the domain of the Canadian global climate model (CGCM). In particular, we evaluated statistically downscaled daily precipitation time series in terms of the Peirce skill score, mean absolute errors, and climate indices. Specifically, we used a variety of linear and nonlinear methods such as artificial neural networks (ANN), decision trees and ensembles, multiple linear regression, and k-nearest neighbors to generate present and future daily precipitation occurrences and amounts. We obtained the predictors from the CGCM 3.1 20C3M (1971–2000) and A2 (2041–2070) simulations, and precipitation outputs from the CRCM 4.2 (forced with the CGCM 3.1 boundary conditions) as predictands. Overall, ANN models and tree ensembles outscored the linear models and simple nonlinear models in terms of precipitation occurrences, without performance deteriorating in future climate. In contrast, for the precipitation amounts and related climate indices, the performance of downscaling models deteriorated in future climate.  相似文献   

Climate change hotspots mapping: what have we learned?     

Alex de Sherbinin 《Climatic change》2014,123(1):23-37

In the past 5 years there has been a proliferation of efforts to map climate change “hotspots” — regions that are particularly vulnerable to current or future climate impacts, and where human security may be at risk. While some are academic exercises, many are produced with the goal of drawing policy maker attention to regions that are particularly susceptible to climate impacts, either to mitigate the risk of humanitarian crises or conflicts or to target adaptation assistance. Hotspots mapping efforts address a range of issues and sectors such as vulnerable populations, humanitarian crises, conflict, agriculture and food security, and water resources. This paper offers a timely assessment of the strengths and weaknesses of current hotspots mapping approaches with the goal of improving future efforts. It also highlights regions that are anticipated, based on combinations of high exposure, high sensitivity and low adaptive capacity, to suffer significant impacts from climate change.  相似文献   

Refining management strategies for groundwater resources     

Wendy A. Klein  Alex K. Manda  Michael T. Griffin 《Hydrogeology Journal》2014,22(8):1727-1730

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